Probability language and sample spaces
Probability turns uncertainty into a number from 0 to 1. Start by naming the possible results; the calculation comes after that.
Result, event, probability
sample space
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
All possible results of one fair-die roll.
one outcome
5
event: odd
{1, 3, 5} → P(odd) = 3/6 = 1/2
Probability lies between 0 and 1.
Outcome, event and sample space
- An experiment is a repeatable chance process, such as rolling a die.
- An outcome is one result, such as rolling 5.
- The sample space is the set of every possible outcome. For a die it is .
- An event is a set of outcomes. “Odd” is the event .
Key idea
Count only equally likely outcomes
Symbols
- = event of interest (none)
- = probability that A occurs (none)
This counting rule is valid only when the elementary outcomes have equal probability. A fair die has equally likely faces. A random selection from a stated group gives each item an equal chance, but grouped results such as two-dice totals may still have different probabilities.
- List or represent every elementary outcome. Use a set, table, grid or tree so that no possible result is missed.
- Check equal likelihood. Only then may you count successful outcomes over all outcomes.
- Count and simplify. The numerator counts outcomes in the event; the denominator counts the whole sample space.
Worked example
One fair die
Find the probability of rolling a prime number. The favourable outcomes are 2, 3 and 5 out of six equally likely faces.
Common mistake
Enumeration means listing every elementary outcome. For a large unordered selection, combinations count the equally likely groups instead; the lesson “Combinations in probability” develops that route fully.
Complements and probability estimates
means “not A”. The event and its complement cover the whole sample space without overlap, so their probabilities add to 1.
- “not”, “none” and “fails” may directly describe a complement.
- Repeated observations estimate an unknown probability with relative frequency: . It is an estimate, not a guaranteed exact value.
- Over future trials, the expected number of successes is . “Expected” means a long-run average, not a promise for one run.
Worked example
Estimate from observed results
A machine passes 46 of 200 checks. Estimate its probability of passing a check, then estimate the number of passes in the next 500 checks.
A fair ten-sided spinner is numbered 1 to 10. Find the probability that one spin is not a factor of 10. Hence find the expected number of such results in 120 spins.
Show worked answer
The factors of 10 are , so 6 of the 10 equally likely outcomes are not factors.
